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| Mitt Romney |
The Republican primary elections take place in Florida on 31 January in what may as well be the crucial battle the war for GOP nomination. After the first three primaries, three candidates have one win each; former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum Iowa, frontrunner and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney New Hampshire and former Congress Speaker Newt Gingrich South Carolina. The fourth contender in the race is the Texas Congressman Ron Paul, whose primary goal has been to spread the idea of libertarianism in this campaign [just like in the last one in 2008].
It seemed at the very beginning as if there was nothing that could possibly stop Mitt Romney, but Gingrich's performance in traditionally conservative Republican South Carolina brought a new dynamics to the campaign.
Romney was forced to cease his campaign of bashing President Barack Obama and acting as the GOP nominee, and battered Gingrich in two recent debates and series of television advertisements. It seemingly paid dividends [something that a wealthy investor such as Romney surely likes] and former Massachusetts governor commanded a double-digit lead over the former speaker in polls prior to the vote.
Florida primary is important for several reasons. Firstly, it is a 'winner takes it all' primary, meaning that all the allocated delegates from Florida [50 of them] go to the person that gets the most votes in the ballots. Though Florida was stripped of a half of its delegates after decision to move ahead its primary, it is nevertheless a substantial number of votes for the final Republican Convention in Tampa later this year.
More importantly, Florida will be a major battleground state in the national elections and as such serves as an indicator of electability of a candidate. In other words, if one cannot win the Republican primary in Florida, it is highly unlikely he will win the state in presidential election, ergo unlikely to become the next President.
Finally, Florida served for electoral cycles as a purgatory for failed candidates who could no longer finance their campaigns, or simply realise their chances for overall victory are close to none, and one should expect similar to happen after this primary.
Newt Gingrich counts on the latest and, even though he is obviously unelectable [18% favourable vs. 56% unfavourable general public opinion] and has [for those, and some other, reasons] the entire GOP establishment against him, he counts on Rick Santorum to be the first to blink and drop out of the race, rallying conservatives behind his candidacy as a counter to Romney.
Gingrich built his profile, despite his track record, as a conservative alternative to a more moderate, and often inconsistent, Romney and as a much better and stronger orator than senator Santorum, who is indeed the only true social conservative in GOP field. He attacked Massachusetts governor for being “a pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase moderate” and added that Republicans “will not nominate somebody who raises millions from Wall Street to run ads”.
Gingrich also received an endorsement from a former rival Herman Cain, who was at a point a favourite of the conservatives, but dropped out of the race in December after allegations of sexual harassment, extramarital affairs and complete blunder on issues of foreign policy.
Governor Romney, who was leading thus far a fairly clean campaign and spent most of his [and his Political Action Committee's] time and money attacking President Obama, went into offence in the past couple of weeks, outlining the shortcomings of Newt Gingrich, both personal and professional.
Romney attacked Gingrich for his ties with the mortgage agency Freddie Mac and the collapse of the housing market, a burning issue in Florida, where property values recorded a drop of some 45% in the past 5-6 years. He also portrayed Gingrich as a Washington insider reminding that he was forced out of his post as the House of Representatives speaker in disgrace after being reprimanded for ethics violations.
With hours left until the ballots are closed, all indicators point to a victory for Mitt Romney and a very poor result for the underdogs in this race, Santorum and Paul. Momentum that this victory would bring Romney could prove crucial for winning the nomination, but a strong performance and withdrawal of Rick Santorum could certainly keep Gingrich's hopes alive. After all, he did pledge following the Iowa caucuses that he would do whatever he can to harm Romney.
